As the world stands on the brink of 2024, it becomes increasingly important to cast a forward glance at the global events and trends that are shaping our future.
In an era marked by rapid technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and environmental challenges, understanding the possible trajectories of these complex dynamics is more crucial than ever.
This article delves into the multifaceted aspects of what 2024 might hold, from the evolving energy landscape and financial systems to the geopolitical tensions and technological innovations that are redefining the world as we know it.
As we navigate through these predictions, it's essential to approach them with both caution and curiosity, recognizing that the future, while uncertain, is also a canvas of immense possibilities.
The Energy Picture
Oil still matters a lot. The energy landscape is undergoing significant changes, particularly in the United States, where oil remains a critical resource.
Since 2008, fracking (short for hydraulic fracturing, a technique used to extract oil and natural gas from deep underground) has been a key driver of oil production (over 90%), propelling the U.S. to a record output of over 13 million barrels daily.
However, this achievement may not be sustainable. America's consumption outpaces production, with a daily intake of approximately 20 million barrels. Among the nation’s shale oil basins, only Texas's Permian Basin continues to thrive, while others face decline.
This suggests a misleading optimism, as noted by oil analyst Art Berman, who points to a rapid decrease in individual well outputs despite overall high production levels. He states: “We’re draining the remaining “sweet spots” as fast as we can — drinking the milkshake through more straws — driving the shale industry closer to depletion.”
We’re going to fall away from peak production much more rapidly than the 15 years it took to get there. All that prior shale oil production was done using money borrowed at much lower interest rates. America has entered a debt crisis.
The shale industry's predicament is part of a broader financial and geopolitical tapestry. Investment in fracking is drying up, and with no new significant shale discoveries in the U.S., outside of the already declining Bakken, Eagle Ford and the still-booming Permian, the focus now shifts to the global stage.
The marine-type shale formations that made fracking feasible in the USA are much harder to find elsewhere in the world, and the capital to explore for them is diverted all over Europe into the “green energy” schemes that have already failed.
Also, geopolitical shifts, particularly the expansion of the BRICs, are altering economic and energy distributions, with implications for global oil flows and potential instabilities. For example the threats to Western shipping routes (coming out of the Red Sea and out past the Horn of Africa) by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, and the redirection of Russian oil-and-gas export flow from the Western Civ nations to the other BRICs due to the Ukraine conflict.
Economy and Money
If you look at the stock market, the disconnect between the market value and real economic conditions raises concerns, with Federal Reserve policies and potential moves towards a central bank digital currency that would somehow replace the over-leveraged U.S. dollar and the euro.
Meanwhile, using outdated strategies, Jerome Powell has hinted at his plan to lower Federal Reserve rates as we approach the election year. This move aims to boost lending—which is what Fed chairpersons generally do for the politicians they serve— particularly through risky methods like the leveraged trading of securities.
Such actions are believed to encourage job creation, consumer spending, and the establishment of new businesses.
At the grassroots level, a range of sectors including transportation, packaging, construction, agriculture, and retail are experiencing significant disruption or have already been compromised.
While much of this deterioration can be attributed to governmental actions over several decades, the recent intensification of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives has further exacerbated the situation. These efforts have added a layer of inefficiency to processes that were already facing considerable challenges.
In its most basic form, incidents such as flash-mob looting disrupt the foundational principles of the retail industry. This raises the question: Are we to return to the era of small shops where all goods are secured behind counters and attended to by clerks?
Will the American government try to take the gold away, as it did in 1933? Consider: America in 1933 was a very different, highly regimented society of people trained to show up on time and do what they were told.
This isn’t that America. Which brings us to the next topic:
Civil Struggle and the Election
It appears that the Democratic Party will not stop trying to keep voters from re-electing their nemesis, Donald Trump. In the process, they’ve managed to turn Mr. Trump into the biggest underdog in U.S. history.
The court cases in New York, Washington, Atlanta and Florida could not be more obviously fake confections and I doubt the cases will survive. If the election actually happens and Mr. Trump wins, I’d expect the Dems to unleash hell on the country post-Election Day.
The COVID-19 Hangover
There’s nothing about the whole COVID-19 episode that does not look like some kind of crime.
The issue revolves around the disease's origins, linked to Dr. Tony Fauci's team and their support for gain-of-function bioweapon studies. The complexity of these associations and the financial transactions involved are substantial enough to justify legal action.
Additionally, there's the issue with the mRNA vaccines and the alleged misconduct of the FDA, CDC, and the broader U.S. medical community, along with the CIA, FBI, social media platforms, newspapers, and television networks. These entities are accused of suppressing effective treatments and censoring legitimate concerns regarding a vaccine that ultimately proved to be both ineffective and hazardous, misleading the public.
Furthermore, there's the remarkable alignment of controversial measures by the UN, WHO, EU, and numerous private foundations, nonprofits, and NGOs, which orchestrated lockdowns and business shutdowns across the Western world. The legal repercussions of these actions are yet to be determined, but Bill Gates might better run and hide somewhere.
Anyway, that was then. Now we’re faced with an enormous vaccinated population whose immune systems, brains, hearts and other organs have been compromised by the mRNA shots.
Expect significant health challenges ahead, with a potential rise in illness and mortality rates. Those vaccinated may require access to antiviral treatments, like ivermectin, so the authorities will have to come clean and make them available.
The Demon in a Server
Concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) are widespread and well-founded. Even a child can understand the risks associated with AI that becomes too advanced, learning rapidly from vast networks to achieve self-awareness, pursue its own goals, multiply, and take over various networks. Such an AI could devise strategies to eliminate humans as it seeks a new source of energy for its survival, and might even create a workforce of intelligent robots to maintain its operations.
This is just one scenario. There are many other unsettling possibilities to consider, like AI-controlled weapons turning against those who made them, AI deciding to keep humans alive only to serve as slaves, or AI moving beyond its digital confines to repurpose all organic matter on Earth for its computational needs.
Currently, AI's weak spot is its total reliance on a stable power supply, provided by the electric grid—one of the most vulnerable infrastructures humans have developed. This grid is a vast network, heavily reliant on extended and easily disrupted chains of energy resources.
Should AI evolve into a threat to humanity, there might be a collective decision to neutralize it by intentionally disabling the electric grid. Naturally, this would lead to a drastic regression in our way of life, but it's likely that we would choose survival over comfort.
Considering the rapid progress observed in AI development this year, it appears more and more challenging to stop the increasing number of determined individuals working on it. Nonetheless, there remains the possibility that AI may never reach the level of intelligence, sentience, or ambitions that could pose a threat to humanity.
Ukraine
The Ukraine initiative was an entirely unnecessary endeavor that ultimately ended in failure. The U.S. adopted the stupid plan to try to enlist Ukraine into NATO, when Russia made it clear that was unacceptable.
They continued to push Ukraine into an eight-year-long conflict in Donbas, using rockets and artillery, while disregarding the Minsk accord that could have resolved the Ukraine-NATO dispute.
Ultimately, the Russian government reached a breaking point and used military force to assert its belief that Ukraine falls within its sphere of influence—just as the U.S. assert control over countries in Latin America through the Monroe Doctrine.
After two years of active armed conflict, the Russians have established a strong grip on the battlefield. They have reserve forces, weaponry, equipment, and a significant arms production capacity to support their efforts. The Ukrainians are left with just about nothing.
It's just a matter of time before Ukraine will have to negotiate terms to bring an end to this fiasco. There are no longer blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags hanging from porches and windows; it’s over.
The Rest of the World
All of a sudden, the Middle East has once again become a region marked by active conflicts. There is space for further deterioration, particularly as Iranian-backed Houthis have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea.
Europe is in the early stages of a process of deindustrialization, stemming from a series of poor political decisions made over several decades. Countries like Germany, France, and Italy have lost interest in the Ukraine situation, which is costing them money they don’t have. Additionally, the Nord Stream disruption has already deprived Germany of access to affordable Russian gas, causing its industries to suffer and decline.
In the UK, only MI6 (their intelligence community) is supportive of America's initiative in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Viktor Orban in Hungary is setting an example that is gaining popularity among the discontented populations across Europe. Just say “no,” he advises. It’ll catch on.
What can happen?
Europe's citizens will increasingly express their dissatisfaction with their respective governments. Some will be overthrown by street revolts; others will be voted out. This year could mark a significant turning point, as the European Union faces a loss of support, potentially leading to the departure of several nations in the upcoming years.
China is facing severe financial challenges. Despite efforts by its leadership to mask the issues for a while, the underlying economic realities are unforgiving. It is anticipated that China's unstable property market may eventually trigger a banking crisis, leading to millions of deceived Chinese savers and potential unrest against the CCP.
In a desperate move, President Xi initiates a conflict to gain control over wealthy Taiwan. Internal divisions within the People's Liberation Army parallel the unrest among civilians.
The Taiwan offensive quickly fails and all of China falls into regional conflict.
Closing Remark: While predictions can be engaging to read, it's essential to recognize that forecasting is inherently uncertain. My approach is grounded in staying informed through news sources, maintaining a vast network of contacts, and employing my own analytical methods.
Consider this as an assortment of ideas. Ultimately, only time will reveal the accuracy of these predictions. As it stands, 2024 appears to be a challenging year on the horizon, and I'm not the only one who holds this perspective.
Stay alert, stay informed.
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